Martin Jacques, the journalist and academic, is now seen by many as the man of the moment in China. He is the author of the global best-seller When China Rules the World: the End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order, which was first published in 2009. He is a Visiting Professor at Tsinghua University and Fudan University. Until recently, he was a Senior Fellow at the Department of Politics and International Studies, Cambridge University.

On May 12, He shared his thoughts with us on the achievements of China led by the CPC during the past ten years. This article is transcribed from his talk by a third-party service, and has been lightly edited and condensed.

From 2012, we see China blossoming in lots of respects

I think that this has been quite a complicated decade for China. Because it starts with China emerging rapidly from the 2008 Western financial crisis, with a very successful development compared with, for example, the U.S., and already it was beginning to develop a more articulate and expansive view of its role in the world. And from 2012, which I think is where we date this from, with Xi Jinping becoming the new general secretary of the Communist Party Central Committee, we see China blossoming in lots of respects:

I would say, firstly, its economic development growth, but also maturing of its economic development with a growing emphasis on the importance of technology, and the flowering of that development with WeChat, Alibaba and Huawei and so on. So China announced itself to the world as not just an economy that grows quickly and quantitatively, but also qualitatively, by upgrading its capacity, innovative capacity and so on. That I think is very important. And of course, we also then get the development of dual circulation, the idea that China will be less dependent on exports as a proportion of its GDP, and more on the domestic market and the growth of the domestic market. And that, of course, we’ve seen that over the last 10 years as a steady process.

Secondly, I think that China was no longer relatively quiescent, if you like, and cautious, but was now willing to assume a wider role in the world that it wasn't just a rule taker, but a rule maker. And the two most important expressions of this have been Belt and Road and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, which of course supplement each other. But if you ask me to emphasize which is the most important, I think Belt and Road is obviously the prime example, because this was an extremely innovative idea which are creating a new set of international relationships with China at the hub across the Eurasian continent, from its immediate neighbors, right way across Central Asia to the Middle East and, beyond that, to Europe. I think that has captured the imagination of many people around the world and has had a singular effect. The emphasis of this has been consistently true in Chinese foreign policy, is above all on the developing world, rather than the rich world. China's relationship with the developing world during this period has proceeded at pace. So that would be my second point.

My third point would be that this has also been a much more complicated period for China, in that we've had two really big developments, one of which perhaps could have been foreseen, the other which was obviously totally unforeseen. The one that potentially could have been foreseen is the increasing hostility of the U.S., or let's say negativity of the U.S. towards China, which we saw bits and bobs of before Trump's election, but became full on with Trump's election. And so China has had to cope in this period with responding to that, finding ways of dealing with it, a much more hostile and aggressive atmosphere and context for everything, including its own economic development. And I would say that this is the beginning of a long period, in my view, of an acrimonious relationship between the two great powers. This is not going to go away. We've already had over five years, we should expect another; I think at least a decade and a half, if not a lot more. I say that sadly, but I think that may well be the reality of the situation. And so China now really has to rethink its development in terms of a global economic and political environment, which is very different from that existed from the beginning of the reform period in 1978 until I would say probably 2016, although you had inklings of this before 2016.

The unpredictable factor, which I mentioned, is obviously COVID-19. This was of course a great shock for China and for the world. We've never in the modern period, for a hundred years, really experienced anything like this on a global basis. Of course we had SARS and MERS, but this was on a global basis, completely different of anything since Spanish flu. Of course we know that China responded to this brilliantly, actually, and was remarkably successful in keeping its own deaths number down to relatively four and a half thousand, something like that, which was extraordinary achievement and compares singularly with every other, with certainly the Western world, but New Zealand which actually took a not dissimilar approach to China in key respects. Of course that this question is still live, it's not dead. As we can see in Shanghai today, and how to deal with this. We've obviously moved into a new phase and China, I think may, probably, will need to adjust its approach to fit the new circumstances. But what that adjustment will be, I think, remains to be seen. It's quite a complicated question. It's not a simple question. Westerners think it's a simple question. But it's not, it's a complicated question for China.

We should be reflective about where we are now and what lies in the future

I think that we should also be reflective as we look back on the last 10 years, we should be reflective about where we are now and what lies in the future.

The reason I say this is because ever since I would date it from 2016, the problem facing China is very different from the problem that faced China from 1978 to 2016. By this, I mean that the global environment that China faces is very different from the earlier period, let's call it the Deng period for the sake of a name. That was a period when actually the international environment was quite favorable to China's development. At the core of this was, on the one hand, Deng strategy, which was this -- don't show leadership, move cautiously and so on, seeking to become part of the international order, if you like. And this was very successful. And because at the core of it lay a relatively benign relationship between the U.S. and China, which eventually resulted crucially in China's membership of the World Trade Organization. Now, that period obviously lent itself, it gave China space to develop. And although China was coming in from the cold, it did manage to come in from the cold, and it did manage to win a tacit support for its development in varying forms. Despite negativities and hostilities, it managed to win a support.

Now the next period I think is going to be that we are now in and started with Trump, is very different. That is China faces and is confronted by an increasingly divided world which is very unstable and very unpredictable and, in some ways, chaotic. Why do we have this situation now? Well, I think the main reason is the decline of the U.S., because the U.S. has been the global hegemon, the architect and leader of the international order since 1945. And now it's increasingly unable to exercise this kind of leadership and authority because it's weakening. I don't mean it's about to go under, it's not; it's still got legs, but it's weak, much weaker. And everyone, every country can see this in the world. And therefore, increasingly countries are acting in one way or another, on their own account, either unilaterally or multilaterally. So America no longer has the same control. Therefore, the world order, the global order is fragmenting and is lacking in a sort of the authority and discipline that existed previously.

And this I think is the main, not the only, but the main explanation for the instability in the world. And this is the situation now confronts China and in practice. What is it going to mean?

First of all, I think there are no guarantees about global economic growth. I mean in the earlier period, generally the global economy was growing at a reasonable rate. Now, I don't think we can rely on this at all. I think we are facing a very uncertain global economic situation. And by the way, I mean, the West has been familiar with this for some time because ever since 2008, particularly the European economies have barely grown at all, that's a decade and a half -- that's a long time, by economic history standards, that's a new kind of development.

So I think that now this kind of uncertain global economic environment is going to become more uncertain, more negative, that could, in these circumstances, even be at some point a major global economic crisis, I think this is perfectly possible. I mean, one's mind here goes back to the period between the two world wars, between 1918 and 1939, when Britain was the global hegemon, not the U.S.. But Britain was very weak after the First World War, and it was really unable to exercise this kind of leadership. And that was one of the key reasons underestimated, one of the key reasons for the instability in this period, was because of the inability of Britain to exercise the all kind of leadership, which it had previously. And in fact, with 1929 to 1933, great depression, basically, it finally wasn't able to do it, and the world broke up into different currency blocks and so on. And then you had great instability, huge unemployment, the rise of fascism and ultimately the Second World War. So I think that you can see, I'm not saying that all of those things are going to happen now -- I don't think they are -- but those tendencies are strong, those trends are strong, those factors are strong in the new environment looking forwards.

One of the key factors: China's ability to win global support

Now China is going to have to deal with this situation, and to grow and to prosper in this segregation which is going to be much more complex, much more challenging in terms of international statecraft, much more challenging than it's been previously. I think this is going to be one of the great questions facing China.

I mean in a way the Deng period was quite straightforward. It was a brilliant idea which was easily successful. It was basically kept quiet and get on with the job. And it worked brilliantly.

Now the problem is, how does China handle this situation? And China is actually relatively new to this kind of problem, because it's only really since 2012 it began this much more expansive foreign policy. Although it's got a lot of things right -- I think it's also got some things wrong during this period about how to handle a hostile environment, which China is very unfamiliar with, for natural reasons, and generally, it's not definitely been China's fault. But it still had to deal with the situation coming from the U.S.. It might be Australia, it might be Britain and so on, might be Europe, this increased hostility towards China.

So I think that this is going to be a very challenging period for China, both economically, because the global environment is more difficult, therefore that's going bound to affect Chinese growth; and secondly, in terms of this more difficult and hostile international environment, this won't go on forever, but I think it'll go on for a long time. These periods don't sort of appear for five years and disappear -- the Cold War lasted for over 40 years, the benign relationship between the U.S. and China after the 1972 Mao-Nixon meeting lasted for again over 40 years... So these periods, I'm not saying this is going to go on for 40 years, but it's going to go on for quite a while, because the U.S., even though it's weakening, will remain so fundamentally important in the world.

The key question in the longer run is, under what circumstances a new relationship can be forged between the two? But we are nowhere near that situation at the moment. We've had Trump, Biden, no difference, basically the same position on China. Across the American political spectrum, bi-parties have a position against China. So we're a long way from any kind of new reconciliation between the two countries.

So I think crucially in this period, one of the key factors is China's ability to win global support, global sympathy for its positions. This is most important. It has to conduct itself with great skill in relationship to the rest of the world.

Now, my first emphasis would be the importance of Belt and Road, all the countries involved in Belt and Road, making Belt and Road successful, creating these new bonds and relationships, which China's been doing very successfully over the last period. That would be my starting point, which obviously (has not only) Eurasia but also Africa and Latin America in that context.

One final question I'd mention is Europe. I think that this is problematic relationship now for China, because basically the relationship between Europe and China has kind of, how can I put this? I think it's got stuck. I'm not gonna say it's frozen, but I think it's got stuck. And Europe is also now geopolitically adrift, by which I mean that the long period after the end of the Cold War was characterized by Europe very slowly and unevenly moving away from the U.S.. Russia’s action in Ukraine has changed that completely. And Europe is now, once again, feeling the pull of the Atlantic Alliance and the relationship with the U.S., more than any period since I would say the 1990s. And I don't think that's easily going to change. Yet I think for China, Europe is very important, in a situation where the relationship with the U.S. has become so difficult. China needs to find a way of having a constructive and creative relationship with Europe.

I suppose my final thought is: The world is characterized by a kind of retreat now -- retreat into old, retreat into the past, China characterized in the West as a Cold War, in Cold War terms, “What's the difference between China and the Soviet Union? The Chinese Communist Party is the same as the Soviet Communist Party.” I mean, this is complete nonsense. It's a huge intellectual aggression.

But when you get very powerful forces, which in this case, the Western forces doing that, it's very difficult that the world, including China, is not affected by that because they’ve got to react to that and deal with it. And I think that we should never lose sight in a situation like this, of the importance of being creative, the importance of being imaginative, finding new ways, doing things surprising -- don't necessarily stick to what you've done before, but find a way of doing, reaching out and surprising people. I think this is very important. Remember the world in the context of a period of growing crisis, economic and political and intellectual, that we have entered, people are both frightened and fearful; they are also, in a sense, more open minded, looking for new kinds of solutions because the old order is breaking down and they're looking for something new.

And I think one of the imperatives for China in this period is to be creative and to be imaginative. Now we've seen China's development ever since 1978 actually been characterized by this, and certainly since 2012 with Belt and Road and so on, lots of very interesting ideas. I think now is a time, in a very different context, where this remains as important, if not more important than it's been previously.