6月7日,由紫荊文化集團主辦、集友銀行聯合主辦的“‘一帶一路’十年成果和願景——紫荊文化論壇”在香港君悅酒店舉行。論壇共邀請了來自印度尼西亞、英國、美國、哈薩克斯坦、阿聯酋、馬來西亞、塞爾維亞和中國香港等地的16位國際知名專家學者、政商領袖親臨現場,回顧總結“一帶一路”十周年的成就和經驗,為“一帶一路”的發展提出建議。全球化智庫高級研究員龍安志出席並發表英文致辭,致辭全文中英文如下:
“一帶一路”構築全球新範式
“一帶一路”是在人類命運共同體的總體價值觀下,通過金融和生態文明發展基礎設施的一項重要政策。新的大趨勢正在形成,不久後將會成為一種新的全球範式。 “一帶一路”將會為世界上最不發達的一些地區帶來經濟利益,從而促進世界的可持續發展與安全。
中國作為從不發達國家發展起來的代表國,正在引領改變傳統發展模式的前進道路。中國的角色從追隨者快速轉變為領導者。 “一帶一路”策略的成功實施將改變中國的國際形象。香港則將在“一帶一路”中扮演全球金融中心的關鍵角色。
“一帶一路”不僅有望重新平衡世界經濟秩序,也可能重新繪製政治版圖。在通過“一帶一路”合作實現的全新世界經濟秩序之下,中國不會被動接受西方強加的遊戲規則,而是成為新規則的締造者。
從“一帶一路”看全球化
在中國,經濟學家觀察到“一帶一路”正在實現“全球化再平衡”。他們認為,傳統全球化模式是以沿海地區為重心,使擁有海運通道的國家從中受益。過去的重心導致貧富國家之間差距過大,造成內陸國家發展落後。
中國將重心放在新絲綢之路國家(其中包括絕大部分“一帶一路”國家),注重發展內陸沿線,打通自古絲綢之路時代起未曾啟用的新通道。然而,重大區別在於古絲綢之路是一條貿易路線。在“一帶一路”政策下,經濟走廊或“帶”不僅僅是一條貿易路線,而是整個經濟發展區。
傳統的全球化始於歐洲,卻因美國跨國公司而瓦解。全球化原則構成了當今的國際秩序,而這個秩序在意識形態上以西方為中心,且多以理論為基礎。
在過去,眾人皆認為東方應該追隨西方的腳步前進。農民放棄農耕轉而進入城市,成為消費者。內陸地區效仿沿海地區的模式發展。但這種方法造成的後果是發展不均衡,且無法有效解決貧困問題,原因在於其本質上創造了不平等和不平衡。
過去三十年的全球化使發達國家得以專注於金融市場及互聯網證券交易,改變了國際經濟版圖的結構。美國全部金融財富的約80%來自於套利,即債務交易,而非來自實際貿易、投資和服務。美國城市不具備真正的生產或生產力,中國不打算採用這種模式,而是基於對基礎設施、製造、加工、貿易和服務產業的實際投資,建立“一帶一路”模式。
此外,“一帶一路”提供的新方法是首先發展內陸,以“一帶一路”建立的新內陸基礎設施連接內陸城市和地區矩陣,帶動西亞和中亞連同蒙古等國家和俄羅斯中西部地區發展。
其戰略願景為,基礎設施加上經濟發展走廊構成的矩陣(“路”與“帶”)將通過經濟發展帶來政治穩定。社會穩定對於“一帶一路”的成功至關重要。
因此,為確保當地發展,“一帶一路”項目必須對當地條件、文化和環境保持敏感。保證必要的穩定,是“一帶一路”取得成功的必備條件。兩者相輔相成。這正是中國經濟學家認為“一帶一路”是“包容性”的全球化新方法,而非他們眼中具有“排他性”的西方舊方法的原因所在。 “一帶一路”是為了重新平衡發展,提倡一種具有包容性,而非排他性的新全球化模式。
“一帶一路”令參與國家受益
“一帶一路”的影響力規模前所未見。截至 2023 年 1 月,已有 151 個國家加入了“一帶一路”倡議。參與國包括近75%的世界人口,佔世界GDP的一半以上。
中國力求通過鐵路、公路、貿易、貨幣流通、政策溝通、文化交流的互聯互通過程,在實際項目合作的基礎上建立信任關係,促進“一帶一路”國家和地區的安全。此外,經歷共同的發展過程,人們才能享受經濟發展的好處。平衡發展將拓展教育和商業機遇的範圍。心懷希望,人們將尋求建立和加強制度,而非反抗制度。
中國正在基於自身經驗以及“一帶一路”合作國家的需求創新經濟發展方式。中國將提供自身的製造能力、技術能力、項目管理經驗及資金,幫助其他國家擺脫欠發達境地。這種模式是基於商業合作,而非單純的援助。融資將成為該政策整體部署的關鍵,而香港將成為全球融資的關鍵。
“一帶一路”如何獲得資金?
“一帶一路”策略的關鍵是通過提供融資來恰當利用中國對外提供基礎設施、電信、製造及資源的能力。挑戰在於如何建立能夠充分滿足發展中國家需求的金融架構。自第二次世界大戰以來,發展中國家的現有金融架構一直是圍繞世界銀行及國際貨幣基金組織構建,並得到諸如美國國際開發署(華盛頓)、國際發展部(倫敦)或國際發展合作機構(瑞典)等援助機構的支持。
因此,發展中國家為關鍵基礎設施與能源項目獲取財務支持的政策和流程受制於一些條件,而這些條件往往是基於西方發達國家領導人的價值觀和所認為的需求,而無法反映欠發達國家人民的需求。
中國希望通過“一帶一路”來改變這一局面。中國自身也經歷過發展的痛苦,對於擺脫貧困、步入發展軌道所需的條件有著清楚認知。其核心在於“循序漸進”的過程,該術語是指發展的基石。例如,在告知人們應當擁有投票權之前,首先需要為其家中通電,這樣他們才能閱讀所要投票的內容。這可能聽起來可笑,但這正是問題和挑戰所在。
因此,如果沒有建立發展的基礎,人民也無法向上發展。所有發展的動力來自於願意貸款和投資的金融機構。發展中國家需要新型金融機構,這些新型金融機構能夠敏銳感知擺脫不發達困境的人們的實際需求。
許多欠發達國家對西方多邊援助和發展機構採取的政策感到失望。因此,他們歡迎中國支持建立新的多邊開發銀行的想法。雖然中國將率先成為這些新金融機構的捐助者,但印度和俄羅斯等其他發展中國家也是其中的創始成員和捐助者。因此,這些多邊發展銀行的借貸和擔保政策將遵循從這些國家的經驗中得出的實際需求。
至今為止,“一帶一路”框架內已成立三家重要多邊開發銀行和一隻中國專項援助基金。其中包括亞洲基礎設施投資銀行(AIIB);新開發銀行(前稱金磚國家開發銀行);絲路基金(非多邊機構,完全由中國出資和管理);和上海合作組織基金。每家機構均按計劃在“一帶一路”整體策略中起到特定作用。然而,香港作為中國的國際融資中心將發揮至關重要的作用,成為所有這些機構的紐帶。
人民幣國際化
至少對參與“一帶一路”的國家來說,將人民幣國際化作為下一個全球儲備貨幣,是中國擴大全球影響力的一個合乎邏輯的措施,也是“一帶一路”的核心戰略。長期以來,中國一直對美國在全球金融體系中的主導地位保持警惕。鑑於全球社會的權力轉移,人們不應該對中國正在創建一個屬於自己的全球金融體系感到意外。 “一帶一路”正是實施這一體系的戰略,但這並非一蹴而就。自1997年亞洲金融危機以來,中國一直在尋求擴大自身貨幣政策影響力的手段,以此來降低與全球貨幣和市場波動相關的風險。中國和其他發展中國家對2008年金融危機和危機後管理的擔憂,在很大程度上影響了成立亞洲基礎設施投資銀行和開發銀行作為“一帶一路”國家新的多邊開發銀行的想法。
這些機構的創立也反映出,儘管中國對國際貨幣基金組織和世界銀行都做出巨額資金承諾,但中國在這兩個組織內部仍未能獲得更大的政策影響力,因此倍感受挫。地緣政治利益限制了中國的影響力,也限制了中國進入發達國家決策俱樂部的機會。那麼,為什麼不單槍匹馬,創建新的多邊開發銀行,並通過發展中國傢俱樂部建立新的金融架構呢?
自1997年亞洲金融危機以來,中國一直對亞洲經濟體面臨全球貨幣和市場波動中的整體風險感到擔憂。中國很早就認識到,美元作為全球儲備貨幣,即使不能控制全球金融,也會給美國帶來巨大優勢,因此中國一直夢想發展自己的金融架構。
這一進程始於2008年全球金融危機期間的清邁倡議。當時,中國與其他亞洲國家共同建立了一個貨幣穩定基金。中國是該基金的主要捐贈國。參與該基金的亞洲國家很清楚,中國準備帶頭建立亞洲抵禦全球市場波動的能力。
建立以亞洲為中心,並由亞洲融資的多邊開發銀行的想法的快速推進,為通過開發銀行、亞洲基礎設施投資銀行和絲路基金等機構建立平行的全球金融架構提供了手段和機會。問題是,下一個全球儲備貨幣將是什麼,人民幣有朝一日能在“一帶一路”願景的整體範圍內發揮這一作用嗎?
國際貨幣基金組織或世界銀行對欠發達或封閉經濟體的標準建議是立即放開外匯交易,這帶來了中國不願承擔的風險。相反,中國採取鄧小平所說“摸著石頭過河”的循序漸進方法,十分緩慢但有效地推進人民幣國際化進程。人民幣將越來越多地用於“一帶一路”國家的跨境交易,其影響力也將日益強大,直至成為“一帶一路”儲備貨幣。香港作為中國的國際金融和銀行中心、“一帶一路”的融資紐帶,在未來將發揮比過往更為重要的作用。
Belt and Road as a New Global Paradigm
The Belt and Road is an overarching policy for developing infrastructure through finance and ecological civilization under the overarching value of a common shared destiny of mankind. It is creating a new mega-trend that will soon become a new global paradigm. The Belt and Road as a process will promote sustainability and security in the world by bringing economic benefits to some of the most underdeveloped regions of the world.
China as a nation stands as a symbol of what was once an underdeveloped nation, developing, and now leading the way in changing traditional views of development models. China’s role is rapidly changing from follower to leader. The successful implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative will transform China’s image globally. Hong Kong will play a key role as global financial center for the Belt and Road.
The Belt and Road has the potential to not only re-balance the world economic order but re-draw the political map as well. In the new world economic order arising through Belt and Road cooperation, China will not be the passive recipient of rules of the game forced on it by the west, but rather China will be the creator of new rules.
The Belt and Road View of Globalization
Within China, economists observe that the Belt and Road is realizing a “globalization rebalance.” They consider the traditional globalization approach as one that is focused on coastal regions benefitting those nations with ocean shipping access. This past focus has created a huge gap between rich and poor nations, leaving the inland countries behind in development.
China’s emphasis on the new Silk Road nations that comprise a large portion of the Belt and Road will give development focus to inland routes offering new access not enjoyed since the time of the old Silk Road. However, the big difference is that the old Silk Road was a trade route. Under Belt and Road policies the economic corridor or “belt” will not only be a route for trade but an entire zone of economic development.
Traditional globalization started from Europe, but imploded with the USA multinational corporations. The principles of globalization formed the international order of the day that was west-centered ideologically and very much based on theory.
The expectation was that the East would follow the West. Farmers would abandon agriculture for the cities and become consumers. Inland development would follow coastal regions. But this approach resulted in unequal growth and proved ineffective in resolving poverty issues because by nature it created inequality and imbalance.
The past 30 years globalization changed the structure of international economic map by having the developed nations focus on financial markets and the trading of Internet securities. Some eighty percent of all financial wealth in America comes from arbitrage, the trading of debt, rather than from actual trade, investment and services. America’s cities are empty of any real production or productivity China intends not to adopt this model but rather to build the Belt and Road model based on hard investments into infrastructure, manufacturing, processing, trade and services.
Moreover, the new approach offered by Belt and Road is to develop the interior first, to allow western and Central Asia together with countries like Mongolia and regions of central and western Russia to develop along with a matrix of inland cities and regions connected by the new inland infrastructure that Belt and Road is establishing.
The strategic vision is that this matrix of infrastructure accompanied by development corridors (the road + belt) will offer political stability through development. Social stability is important to the success of The Belt and Road.
Consequently, Belt and Road projects must be sensitive to local conditions, culture, and environment to assure local development. This is necessary to guarantee that very stability required for Belt and Road to become a success. The two go hand in hand. That is why Chinese economists consider Belt and Road to be a fresh approach to globalization that is “inclusive” rather than the old western approach, which they view as “exclusive.” Belt and Road is all about rebalancing development, to put forward a new kind of globalization that is inclusive rather than exclusive.
Belt and Road Benefiting Participating Countries
The scale of Belt and Road OBOR influence is unprecedented. To date, there are 65 nations that have joined the Belt and Road OBOR multi-lateral process as partners. As of January 2023, 151 countries were listed as having signed up to the BRI. The participating countries include almost 75% of the world's population and account for more than half of the world's GDP.
China seeks to forge security in Belt and Road countries and regions through a process of connectivity involving: rail, road, trade, currency circulation, policy communication, cultural exchange in building trust based on practical project cooperation. Moreover, it is through the process of shared development that people will access the benefits of economic growth. Balanced development will widen the scope of education and business opportunities. With hope, people will seek to build and strengthen systems rather than revolt against them.
China is innovating a new approach to economic development based on its own experiences, and the needs of the countries that are Belt and Road partners. China will offer its manufacturing capacity, technology capability, project management experience, and hard finance to help other countries come out from underdevelopment. The model is based on business cooperation rather than just aid. Financing will be key to the entire rollout of this policy. Hong Kong will be key to global financing.
How will One Belt One Road be Funded?
Key to the Belt and Road Initiative is matching China’s infrastructure, telecommunications, manufacturing and resource extrapolation through finance. The challenge is how to build a sufficient financial architecture that can meet the demands of developing nations. Since World War II the existing financial architecture for developing nations has been built around the World Bank and IMF, supported by aid agencies such as USAID from Washington, DIFID from London, or SIDA from Sweden for example.
Consequently, the policies and processes for developing nations to obtain financial support for key infrastructure and energy projects have been tied to conditions that are often based on the values and perceived needs of leaders in the developed western nations, rather than reflecting the needs of people in underdeveloped nations.
Through Belt and Road, China intends to change exactly this problem. Having been through the pains of development itself, China has a clear understanding of what it takes to pull out of poverty and move on the track to development. Core to this is the process of “sequencing” a term that refers to the building blocks of development. For instance, before you tell people that they should have the right to vote, people may need to first have electricity in their homes so that they can read what they are going to vote for. This may sound funny, but it is exactly the problem and challenge.
So without building the foundations for development, there can be no upward mobility of people. The driver for all development comes from the financial institutions that will lend and invest. China’s view has been that the developing world needs new financial institutions that are sensitive to the practical needs of people coming out from underdevelopment.
Many of the underdeveloped nations are frustrated by the policies that have been imposed by western multilateral aid and development agencies. Consequently, they welcome the idea that China is supporting the establishment of new multilateral development banks. While China will take the lead as donor to these new financial institutions, other developing nations such as India and Russia are also founding members and donors. Consequently, the lending and guarantee policies of these multilateral development banks will adhere to the practical needs drawn from experience of these countries.
To date, there are three key multilateral development banks and one dedicated China support fund that have been established within the Belt and Road framework. These include the Asian Infrastructure Development Bank (AIIB); the New Development Bank (formerly referred to as the BRICS Development Bank); the Silk Road Fund (not a multilateral institution as it is entirely China funded and managed); and the Shanghai Cooperation Group Fund. Each institution and the designated role that it is intended to play in the overall Belt and Road Initiative. However, Hong Kong as China’s international financing center will have the most important role to play as a nexus for all of these institutions.
Internationalization of the Yuan Currency
It is a logic step in China’s increasing global presence and a core initiative of Belt and Road to integrate an internationalization of the Yuan as the next global reserve currency, at least for the nations participating in Belt and Road. China has long been wary of America’s dominance in the global financial system. Given the power shifts in the global community one should not be surprised that China is creating a global financial system of its own. Belt and Road is the initiative for implementing such a system.
It did not happen overnight. Since the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997, China has sought means to expand the influence of its own monetary policy as a method of reducing risk associated with global currency and market fluctuations. The idea of creating AIIB and the Development Bank as new multilateral development banks for Belt and Road countries were greatly influenced by the concerns of China and other developing nations over the 2008 financial crisis and post crisis management.
The creation of these institutions also reflects China’s frustration in the lack of gaining greater policy influence within the IMF and World Bank despite its large financial commitments to both organizations. Geo-political interests have limited China’s influence and entry into the policy making club of developed nations. So why not go it alone and create new multi-lateral development banks and establish a new financial architecture through a club of the developing nations.
Since the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997, China has been deeply concerned with the overall exposure of Asian economies to global currency and market volatility. Recognizing early on that the US Dollar as global reserve currency, gives the United States an overarching advantage if not control over global finance, China has had the long-held dream of evolving its own financial architecture.
This process began with the Chiang Mai Initiative during the 2008 global financial crisis when China together with other Asian nations established a currency stabilization fund. China was the main donor to the fund. It was clear to the Asian nations participating that China was prepared to take the lead in building Asian resilience to the volatility of global markets.
Fast forwarding, the idea of establishing Asian-based and financed multi-lateral development banks offered a means and opportunity of establishing a parallel global financial architecture through institutions such as the Development Bank, AIIB and the Silk Road Fund. The question is, what will be the next second global reserve currency, and can the Yuan serve this purpose one day within the overall scope of the Belt and Road Belt and Road vision?
The standard IMF or World Bank advice to an underdeveloped or closed economy has been to immediately liberalize foreign exchange trading. This carries risks that China was not willing to undertake. Instead, adopting the step-by-step approach in Deng’s adage about crossing rivers while carefully seeking the stones for the next steps China has adopted a very gradual yet effective sequencing toward internationalization of the Yuan currency. The Yuan will increasingly be used in cross border transactions in Belt and Road countries, until its influence becomes so strong that the Yuan becomes a Belt and Road reserve currency. Hong Kong as China’s international financial and banking center as nexus for financing the Belt and Role will have a more important role to play in the future than any role it has played in its past.
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